The Singularity Hypothesis: A Scientific and Philosophical Assessment

AI risk research: a bibliography (Luke Muehlhauser)

2012-02-04T16:52:00.000Z

A list of forthcoming & desired articles on AI risk was compiled by Luke Muehlhauser: http://tinyurl.com/ai-risk-research

The Singularity and Machine Ethics (Abstract)

2011-11-18T12:27:00.001Z

The Singularity and Machine Ethics

Luke Muehlhauser and Louie Helm, Singularity Institute of Artificial Intelligence

Many researchers have argued that a self-improving artificial intelligence (AI) could become so vastly more powerful than humans that we would not be able to stop it from achieving its goals. If so, and if the AI’s goals differ from ours, then this could be disastrous for humans. One proposed solution is to program the AI’s goal system to want what we want before the AI self-improves beyond our capacity to control it. Unfortunately, it is difficult to specify what we want. After a brief digression concerning human intuitions about intelligence, we offer a series of "intuition pumps" in moral philosophy for our conclusion that human values are complex and difficult to specify. We then survey the evidence from the psychology of motivation, moral psychology, and neuroeconomics that supports our position. We conclude by recommending ideal preference theories of value as a promising approach for developing a machine ethics suitable for navigating the Singularity.

Deadline extension for full essays

2011-10-11T12:58:00.001+01:00

Invited authors were notified on an extension to the September 30 deadline for the submission of the full essays. The final deadline is 31 October 2011.

The editors

Models of a Singularity (extended abstract)

2011-07-12T14:54:00.001+01:00

Models of different categories of technological singularity

Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute

The set of concepts today commonly referred to as “technological singularity” has a long history in the computer science community. Concerns about automated reasoning outpacing human reasoning can be found in Samuel Butler’s Erewhon (1872), John von Neumann and Stanislaw Ulam conversed in the 1950’s on how ever accelerating progress would lead to “some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue”, and I.J. Good in 1965 delineated the possibility of an “intelligence explosion” where sufficiently advanced artificial intelligence would rapidly self-improve.
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Some History of the Singularity

2011-07-06T16:16:00.004+01:00

Many philosophers portray the cosmic process as an ascending curve of positivity. As time goes forward, the quantities of intelligence, power, or value are always increasing. These progressive philosophies have sometimes been religious and sometimes secular. Secular versions of progress have sometimes been political and sometimes technological. Technological versions have sometimes invoked broad technical progress and have sometimes focused on the recursive self-improvement of artificial intelligence.
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The Disconnection Thesis (extended abstract)

2011-07-02T12:28:00.000+01:00

David Roden, The Open University

Speculative Posthumanism and The Disconnection Thesis

Keywords: speculative posthumanism, wide descent, wide humanity, cognitive and value incommensurability, essentialism, flat ontology

In this essay I develop a philosophical schema for understanding the concept of the posthuman implied by singularity scenarios: Speculative Posthumanism (SP). SP states that wide descendants of current humans could cease to be human by virtue of a history of technical alteration. The major part of the essay clarifies its metaphysical presuppositions. The final part will consider the ethical implications of SP for current technological practice.
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The slowdown hypothesis (extended abstract)

2011-07-02T12:07:00.002+01:00

Alessio Plebe and Pietro Perconti, University of Messina

The slowdown hypothesis

The so-called singularity hypothesis embraces the most ambitious goal of Artificial Intelligence: thepossibility of constructing human-like intelligent systems. The intriguing addition is that once this goal isachieved, it would not be too difficult to surpass human intelligence. A system more clever than humansshould also be better at designing new systems as well, leading to a recursive loop towardsultraintelligent systems (Good, 1965), with an acceleration reminiscent of mathematical singularities (Vinge, 1993).
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Socio-economic preconditions (extended abstract)

2011-07-02T10:22:00.002+01:00

Steve Phelps, University of Essex

Extendible AI: the economic perspective

Many formulations of the singularity argument are contingent on the existence of “extendible” methods for Artificial Intelligence (AI) [Chalmers, 2010]. One of the most promising extendible AI methods is that of multi-agent systems [Weiss, 1999] a field of distributed AI [Minsky, 1988]. Superficially thisapproach appears to be directly extendible since in some cases we can increasethe intelligence of the system by increasing the number of agents. However, inorder to make these methods truly extendible we will need to be able to scale up these systems to many billions of components. Building multi-agent systems on this scale, however, entails solving many complex economic problems[Clearwater 1996].
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The singularity as faith (extended abstract)

2011-07-02T09:32:00.003+01:00

Selmer Bringsjord and Alexander Bringsjord, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

Belief in The Singularity is Fideistic

We have on hand a framework for classifying the bases of belief in things that are at once weighty and unseen. Here, we apply the framework to belief in The Singularity, and conclude from this application, and the absence of both rationalist and empiricist evidence in support of this belief, that believers in the doctrine are fideists. While it’s true that fideists have been taken seriously in religion (e.g., Kierkegaard in the case of Christianity), even in that domain the likes of religious believers like Descartes, Pascal, and Leibniz find fideism to be little more than wishful, irrational thinking — and at any rate it’s rather doubtful that fideists should be taken seriously in the realm of science and engineering.
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The Hard Takoff Hypothesis (extended abstract)

2011-07-01T13:21:00.001+01:00

Ben Goertzel, Novamente LLC

The Hard Takeoff Hypothesis

Vernor Vinge, Ray Kurzweil and others have hypothesized the future occurrence of a “technological Singularity” -- meaning, roughly speaking, an interval of time during which pragmatically-important, broad-based technological change occurs so fast that the individual human mind can no longer follow what’s happening even generally and qualitatively. Plotting curves of technological progress in various areas suggests that, if current trends continue, we will reach some sort of technological Singularity around 2040-2060.
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The singularity as a religion (extended abstract)

2011-06-15T07:46:00.007+01:00

Diane Proudfoot and B. Jack Copeland, University of Canterbury

Software Immortals—Science or Faith?

The 20th century futurist Julian Huxley called for a new religion, allied with science, to replace the (he said) ‘progressively less and less tenable’ hypothesis of a supernatural god or spirit. 21st century technological futurists have in effect answered Huxley’s call. They predict a post-Singularity future that is remarkably similar to the post-salvation (or post-spiritual liberation) life promised by major world religions: a software-based existence that is ‘immortal’, ‘truly meaningful’, and ‘blissful’. Modern physics and computer science, they claim, can give us ‘transcendence’, ‘resurrection’, ‘souls’, ‘spirit’, ‘heaven’, and even ‘God’. Proponents of the Singularity hypothesis claim that their predictions are very different from those of (what Kurzweil calls) ‘traditional’ religions. Futurists are materialists (they have no time for ‘ornate dualism’ or souls composed of a ‘ghostly substance’), and their forecasts are based on science rather than faith. Yet, as we shall argue, the Singularity hypothesis fares little better than established religions in answering the philosophical challenges that arise for afterlife beliefs.

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Arms races and intelligence explosions (extended abstract)

2011-04-13T10:44:00.001+01:00

Carl Shulman, Singularity Institute of Artificial Intelligence
Stuart Armstrong, InhibOx

I. Introduction

A number of researchers (Chalmers, 2010; Good, 1965; Kurzweil, 2005; Moravec, 1999; Sandberg, 2009; Solomonoff, 1985; Vinge, 1993; see also Baum and Goertzel, 2010) have argued that sometime in this century humanity will develop Artificial Intelligence (AI) programs capable of substituting for human performance in almost every field, including AI research, and that this will greatly accelerate technological progress as AIs design their successors. That hypothetical event has been described as an “intelligence explosion” or “technological singularity.” While the term “singularity” is sometimes taken to refer to broader claims of accelerating change or limits of prediction (Yudkowsky, 2007), and has been elaborated in diverse formal models (Sandberg, 2009), we will rely on the recent overview in Chalmers (2010) for its account of the intelligence explosion.

Chalmers notes that even if it is technically feasible for humanity to produce an intelligence explosion, we may not exercise that capacity because of “motivational defeaters,” choosing to restrict, slow, and manage the development of advanced AI technologies to reduce risk. On the other hand, since a lead in AI technology may translate into overwhelming military advantage, an arms race dynamic may give states incentives to pursue even very dangerous research in hopes of attaining a leading position.
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The case for substrate-independent minds and whole brain emulation (extended abstract)

2011-04-07T16:42:00.001+01:00

Randal Koene, Halcyon Molecular; carboncopies.org

Embracing competitive developments: The case for substrate-independent minds and whole brain emulation

In a real environment that is dominated by Universal Darwinism, all-pervasive competition and natural selection at every scale, the strongest requirement for the successful existence of a thinking entity is a survival-oriented self-consistent reward mechanism. Some thinking entities will learn ways to modify their reward mechanisms in accordance with new information, as a means to maximize reward over time. There is evidence that this development has already commenced in humans.

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The singularity as a phase transition (extended abstract)

2011-03-31T10:35:00.004+01:00

Béla Nagy, Santa Fe Institute
J.Doyne Farmer, Santa Fe Institute
John Paul Gonzales, Santa Fe Institute

The Finite Time Singularity Scenario

In his seminal article about “The Coming Technological Singularity” Vinge (1993) quotes how Ulam (1958) paraphrased John von Neumann as saying: “One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue.”

Of course, we can only guess exactly what kind of singularity the great Hungarian-born American mathematician had in mind, but one such guess is a finite time singularity, i.e. a mathematical singularity that can occur by trying to divide with zero. Graphically, this can be illustrated by a hyperbola approaching a vertical asymptote at the time of the singularity, such as 1/x approaching infinity as x goes to zero.

In this article, we are arguing that when we are talking about the potential outcomes of technological progress, such finite time singularity scenarios are possible, plausible, and should be taken seriously. This is counterintutive. Who in their right mind would seriously consider the possibility of such an explosive acceleration of technological progress that would actually reach infinity in finite time? Clearly, no sane person could or should be expected to entertain such a fantastic scenario. However, this entire analysis is exactly wrong.
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There will be no singularity (extended abstract)

2011-03-29T19:06:00.007+01:00

The following is an synopsis of an extended abstract provided by the author.

Theodore Modis, Growth Dynamics

There Will Be No Singularity

Many arguments can be made against the possibility of a Singularity around mid-21st century and I make them in my critique of Kurzweil's book (Modis 2006) and more extensively in a dedicated chapter in the upcoming Springer-commissioned volume. But let me present here the simplest and most fundamental one.

Every exponential curve that represents a real growth process constitutes part of some logistic curve (S-curve). The "knee" of an exponential curve defined as "the stage at which the pattern begins to appear explosive" is bound between an upper and a lower limit. The upper limit is around 13% penetration toward the S-curve’s ceiling because at that point the S-curve and the corresponding exponential differ by 15% which is difficult to overlook.
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Can machine learning bring about an intelligence explosion? (Extended abstract)

2011-03-28T16:26:00.001+01:00

Itamar Arel, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, The University of Tennessee

Reward-Driven Learning and the Threat of an Adversarial Artificial General Intelligence Singularity

A myriad of evidence exists in support of the notion that mammalian learning is driven by rewards. Recent findings from cognitive psychology and neuroscience strongly suggest that much of human behavior is propelled by both positive and negative feedback received from the environments with which we interact. The notion of reward is not limited to indicators originating from a physical environment. It also embraces signaling generated internally in the brain, based on intrinsic cognitive processes. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), coarsely viewed as human-level intelligence manifested over non-biological platforms, is commonly perceived as one of the paths that may lead to the singularity. Such a path has the potential of being either beneficially transformative or devastating to the human race, to a great extent depending on the very nature of the AGI.

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The Methuselarity and longevity escape velocity (extended abstract)

2011-03-23T20:44:00.019Z

Aubrey de Grey, SENS Foundation

The Methuselarity: A Singularity With A Twist

The technological singularity hypothesis focuses on the potential for the rise in computer capabilities over time to continue to accelerate - possibly to the point where humanity ceases to have a clear idea of, or much control over, how computers will change our world in the future. In this essay I will explore some aspects of this hypothesis, including sociological as well as technical ones, and contrast it with an ostensibly similar concept, which relates to our ability to combat aging using medicine and has been termed the Methuselarity.
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Extended abstract submissions are now closed

2011-03-20T17:19:00.004Z

We would like to thank the authors for their efforts. We hope to notify you on our decisions as soon as we get the expert help needed in reviewing the submissions. We expect the process to complete soon, but given the large volume of the submissions received, please be patient with us.

Please contact us with any problem with the submission website.

The editors

How close are we to replicating brain tissue in synthetic form? (Extended abstract)

2011-03-19T11:57:00.010Z

Dennis Bray, Department of Physiology, Development and Neuroscience, University of Cambridge

Brain vs. Machine

Over the past 50 years, sci-fi writers and other visionaries have been predicting the appearance of humanoid robots able to walk, talk, and act like people. Over the same period of time our knowledge of the brain and understanding of how it acts has been transformed. So, as the singularity approaches, it seems reasonable to ask how close are we to replicating brain tissue in synthetic form? What are the implications for the future?
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The impact of expecting a singularity (extended abstract)

2011-03-17T16:55:00.012Z

James Miller, Department of Economics, Smith College

Expectations of the Singularity

Several of the possible paths to the singularity have signposts indicating their destination. For example, let's say that within fifteen years someone makes a computer simulation of a chimpanzees' brain and puts this brain in a robot's body and this artificial chimpanzee acts just as a real chimp does. If this occurs then many technology opinion leaders will understand that if we can create a computer chimp we can create a computer man. And once we have a simulation of a human brain we should eventually be able to increase the speed of this simulation a million fold, make a million copies of the simulation and usher in the Singularity.
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Mathematical singularity and technological singularity (Yoram Hirshfeld)

2011-02-05T23:48:00.006Z

(Read the complete post)

In the discussion of civilization and technology and their development in time, some terms with mathematical origin are used, specifically "singularity" and "exponential growth". There is some relation by association between objects with the same name in two different disciplines, but they usually do not mean the same. It would be very strange, if a philosopher of human behavior would try to apply Euclid's theory to love triangles, or if a geometer would launch into a long explanation why Euclid's mathematics is not relevant to this kind of triangles. Ironically, I find myself doing it; writing a note insisting that mathematical singularity has no bearing on the research of technological singularity. I will explain what is a mathematical singularity, and what exponential growth is, and is not. I can guarantee that the mathematics in the note is correct, but the philosophical claims are intuitive, based on common sense and on merely mild mathematical expertise. (Read more)

The Intelligence Explosion (extended abstract)

2011-01-31T22:30:00.022Z

Anna Salamon, Singularity Institute of Artificial Intelligence
Nick Bostrom, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University

The Intelligence Explosion: Evidence and Import

In this century, broadly human-level artificial intelligence may be created[1][2][4][7][12]. Shortly thereafter, we may see what I.J. Good termed an “intelligence explosion” -- a chain of events by which human-comparable artificial intelligence leads, fairly rapidly, to artificially intelligent systems whose capabilities far surpass those of biological humanity as a whole. [5]

We aim to sketch, as briefly as possible: (1) what assumptions might make an “intelligence explosion” plausible; (2) what empirical evidence supports these assumptions; and (3) why it matters.
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Deadline extended

2011-01-26T16:44:00.003Z

The Call for Abstracts has been extended to 15 March 2011.

Human intelligence, superintelligence, and intelligence explosion (Alan Turing)

2010-12-29T21:56:00.003Z

Jack Copland holds (Alan Turing and the Origins of AI) that the earliest substantial work in artificial intelligence was done by the Turing. His vision of machine learning, articulated as early as 1951, is a case in Copeland's point:

If the machine were able in some way to 'learn by experience'... there seems to be no real reason why one should not start from a comparatively simple machine, and, by subjecting it to a suitable range of experience, transform it into one which was more elaborate, and was able to deal with a far greater range of contingencies. ['Intelligent Machinery, A Heretical Theory' BBC 1951]

May we also find in Turing's work his opinion about the the prospects of 'human-level' machine intelligence, superintelligence, and even a process akin to an intelligence explosion?

I believe that at the end of the century the use of words and general educated opinion will have altered so much that one will be able to speak of machines thinking without expecting to be contradicted. ['Computing Machinery and Intelligence' Mind 1950]

Acceleration (Alvin Toffler)

2010-12-23T15:09:00.004Z

In 1970, Toffler's Future Shock offered penetrating insights into changes that have been taking place. The book however is less known for presenting one of the earliest (if not the first) acceleration hypotheses:

Western society for the past 300 years has been caught up in a fire storm of change. This storm, far from abating, now appears to be gathering force. Change sweeps through the highly industrialized countries with waves of ever accelerating speed and unprecedented impact. ...

Much of what now strikes us as incomprehensible would be far less so if we took a a fresh look at the racing rate that makes reality seem like a kaleidoscope wild run. For the acceleration of change ... is a concrete force. ...

Motivation (David Chalmers)

2010-11-25T12:07:00.001Z

David Chalmers' essay "The Singularity: A Philosophical Analysis" clearly sets out the motivation for this volume:

One might think that the singularity would be of great interest to academic philosophers, cognitive scientists, and artificial intelligence researchers. In practice, this has not been the case. ... I think this resistance is a shame, as the singularity idea is clearly an important one. The argument for a singularity is one that we should take seriously. And the questions surrounding the singularity are of enormous practical and philosophical concern. (Chalmers, this volume/forthcoming)

We hope that working towards this volume will help changing the situation illustrated in this quote.

Submission instructions

2010-11-07T23:24:00.002Z

Submission instructions for extended abstracts and full essay have been published.

Bibliography

2010-10-13T14:57:00.013+01:00

References, introductory material, technical articles, and papers of general interest.

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(Joshua Fox) Informal bibliography on the Intelligence Explosion and Friendly AI

2010-10-11T18:50:00.014+01:00

This is an informal bibliography on the Intelligence Explosion and Friendly AI.

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Welcome

2010-09-27T12:12:00.016+01:00

Welcome to The Singularity Hypothesis blog.

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