Acceleration (Alvin Toffler)

In 1970, Toffler's Future Shock offered penetrating insights into changes that have been taking place. The book however is less known for presenting one of the earliest (if not the first) acceleration  hypotheses:

Western society for the past 300 years has been caught up in a fire storm of change. This storm, far from abating, now appears to be gathering force. Change sweeps through the highly industrialized countries with waves of ever accelerating speed and unprecedented impact. ...

Much of what now strikes us as incomprehensible would be far less so if we took a a fresh look at the racing rate that makes reality seem like a kaleidoscope wild run. For the acceleration of change ... is a concrete force. ...

The disturbing fact is that the vast majority of people, including educated and otherwise sophisticated people who understand intellectually that change is accelerating, have not internalized that knowledge. ...

What such numbers imply is nothing less revolutionary than a doubling of the total output of goods and services in the advanced societies every fifteen years--and the doubling times are shrinking. ... It means that by the time today's teenager reaches ... old age the society around him will be producing thirty-two times as much as when he was born. ...

The greatest and most dangerous marvel of all is the complacent past-orientation of the race, its unwillingness to confront the reality of acceleration. Thus man moves swiftly into an unexplored universe, into a totally new stage of eco-technological development, firmly convinced that "human nature is eternal" or that "stability will return.

Should Toffler be taken seriously? According to the Wall Street Journal, Carlos Slim, named as the richest man in the world, attributes his wealth in part to Toffler's books. Slim met Toffler in 1993, when "Mr. Slim approached [Toffler] after a speech, surrounded by his family and carrying one of Mr. Toffler's books, heavily underlined." (WSJ 2007)

Happy holidays, Amnon